Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 15 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2025 to 3 Mar 2025, the highest close was 52.5% on 15 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 28 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 8.5% on 3 Feb 2025. $113.85K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 6:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 15 Jan 2025 – 3 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2025 | 52.5% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 3.41K |
| creatine1 | Yes | 3K |
| Boydosan | Yes | 2.24K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Donald Trump’s favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than his unfavorable rating on March 1, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Trump’s favorable rating must be higher than his unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify. The favorability rating for March 1 will be considered finalized once the next data point is available. If data for March 1 remains unavailable, the nearest previous favorability will be used. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable", and the orange “unfavorable” trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market - only the difference between favorable and unfavorable ratings that they report up to one decimal point is considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after March 1, 2025 is published. If no such data point is available by March 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recent data point prior to March 1, 2025. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-positive-favorability-on-march-1
| Yes |
| 2.1K |
| Getyourhandoffmypenis | Yes | 366.67 |
| 959599 | Yes | 6.52 |
| xjy-748 | Yes | 4.26 |
| eDaEiflTnQ | Yes | 3.02 |
| testeman | No | 0.02 |
| epstes | No | 0.02 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
