Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 40% on 30 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 30 Jun 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 30 Jun 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 18 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 14.5% on 1 Jul 2026. $732.37 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 30 Jun 2026 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | 40.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TENETENET | Yes | 45.1 |
| Amber Quasar 08AF | Yes | 16.44 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
Donald Trump’s Social Media and Cryptocurrency company Trump Media and Technology Group and the fusion power company TAE Technologies announced they had agreed to a merger deal on December 18th, signaling a shift of focus for the Trump-owned firm. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html This market will resolve to “Yes” if the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and TAE Technologies is completed by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The merger will be considered completed once it has become legally effective and the two companies are now a single entity or they exist under a single entity as one corporate group, as evidenced by official company announcements and/or regulatory filings (e.g. the filing of an 8-K form to the SEC that announces the closure of the deal). Shareholder approval, receipt of regulatory approvals, regulatory filings which do not announce the closure of the deal, or other intermediate steps towards the closing of a deal will not alone be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution. If the merger agreement is officially terminated or the deal has been abandoned according to official company communications, this market will resolve to “No”. Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Trump Media and Technology Group, TAE Technologies, or a combined successor entity, supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-media-x-tae-technologies-merger-closed-by-july-31-20260629151200479
| silverstud | Yes | 10 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Weepy-Item | Yes | 4.96 |
| niglette | Yes | 1.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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