Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 95.2%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 14 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 3 Mar 2026, the highest close was 95.8% on 2 Mar 2026 and the lowest 22% on 14 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 95.5% on 1 Mar 2026. $251.3K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 3 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 58.5% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | 95.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oak | No | 4.6K |
| neutralwave23 | No | 2.06K |
| LukeDelta | No | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities against Iran between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until 10 days after the listed date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-invokes-war-powers-against-iran-by
| No |
| 2K |
| Troopnet33 | No | 1.97K |
| cq-0 | No | 899.99 |
| 0xleo888 | No | 800 |
| notap | No | 799.88 |
| Important-Terminology | No | 673.08 |
| coiners | No | 555.35 |
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