Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 80.5% on 26 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 311 daily closes on record from 26 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 90.5% on 2 May 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 46.5% on 5 Sep 2025. $87.97K traded over the market's life.
79 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 7:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 311 points, 26 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2025 | 80.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 6.18K |
| FrosenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1.93K |
| lissartter |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count. Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position. Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-cabinet-member-out-by
| Yes |
| 626.42 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 354 |
| Sydhavn | Yes | 277.67 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 259 |
| Old-Fashioned-Sphere | Yes | 222.22 |
| reidja2 | No | 180 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 146 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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