Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6% on 20 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 6.5% on 21 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. $191.76K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 20 Mar 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2025 | 6.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Customluger | Yes | 800 |
| BabyYoda12 | Yes | 500 |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 300 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces the the US will be giving up it's role as NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only official policy announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, announcements of a partial withdrawal, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-the-us-is-giving-up-nato-command-before-may
| Yes |
| 265.8 |
| yeppers | Yes | 171.43 |
| Mcmeeshy | Yes | 76.92 |
| inOUxFLyVS | Yes | 0.85 |
| npGrllkpKz | Yes | 0.67 |
| juRmPdEyaP | Yes | 0.44 |
| FdOlffecVL | Yes | 0.12 |
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