Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 44% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 9 Mar 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 28 Feb 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 9 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 8% on 7 Mar 2026.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 10, 1:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 9 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 44.0% |
| 9 Mar 2026 | 2.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Yes | 4.33K |
| KaylaYang5333 | Yes | 252 |
| Ardtysrt01 | Yes | 229.87 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 199.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-announces-new-drug-boat-strike-by-529
| wendypeekaboo | Yes | 100 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 99.96 |
| Indigo Oracle B1A9 | Yes | 95 |
| commonraccoon | Yes | 32.56 |
| MonetaNova | No | 30.05 |
| PX5300 | Yes | 30 |
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