Analytics
Yes is at 30%, down 26 points from 55.5% when the market opened on 8 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 26%; a month before, 25.5%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 32.5% on 24 Oct 2026.
$752.79 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $252.78K since listing. The order book holds $26.26K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $16.93K bought Yes and $41.06K bought No; the largest was a $9.55K sell of No at 73.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Full-Realization with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is N.sam with 4.4K. Ten wallets hold 79.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:22 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 55.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| N.sam | No | 4.37K |
| Full-Realization | Yes | 1.2K |
| Rasoulrtl | Yes | 1.09K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/total-internet-blackout-in-iran-byptptpt-20260720155238426
| JosephIsGreat |
| Yes |
| 750.14 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 728.47 |
| Joseaa | Yes | 683.48 |
| WeJustBettin | No | 654.08 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 400 |
| 0xmors | Yes | 397.09 |
| Haradwaith | No | 298.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
