Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 85.5%. Yes opened at 40% on 3 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 85.5% on 16 Oct 2025 and the low 10.5% on 28 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 85.5% on 16 Oct 2025. $13.88K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 17, 4:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 106 points, 3 Jul 2025 – 16 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | 40.0% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | 85.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| grut675 | No | 69.11 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 33.99 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 32 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative. The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/thiel-x-luckey-erebor-bank-chartered-in-2025
| No |
| 14 |
| komplexkonjugat | No | 10 |
| tyl88 | No | 0.26 |
| poy.tra | No | 0.02 |
| dashula | No | 0.01 |
| iraqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq | No | 0.01 |
| .AnA.luz | No | 0.01 |
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