Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 4% on 30 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2025 to 2 Aug 2025, the highest close was 4% on 30 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 2 Aug 2025. $30.97K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 29, 2:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 30 Jul 2025 – 2 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | 4.0% |
| 2 Aug 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BelfortWSB | Yes | 2.72K |
| jmarc369 | Yes | 1K |
| shsgsgsg | Yes | 982.2 |
| Organic-Blowhole | Yes | 800 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate between July 29, 4:00 PM ET and August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-august-1
| KENT | Yes | 673.19 |
| Tpope6 | Yes | 334.44 |
| Therealbatmannn | Yes | 160.82 |
| alfredthe | Yes | 144.29 |
| GreatBote | Yes | 120 |
| x76wer | Yes | 100 |
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