Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 46% on 17 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 351 daily closes on record from 17 Jan 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 73.5% on 8 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 26.5% on 13 May 2025. $214.64K traded over the market's life.
150 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 10:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 351 points, 17 Jan 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2025 | 46.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 8=====D | Yes | 2.6K |
| efeyjnu7892 | Yes | 2.5K |
| Immaculate-Pajamas | Yes | 1.61K |
On November 18, Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione introduced H.B. 1598, a bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve within the state treasury (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/texas-house-introduces-bill-to-establish-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html). This market will resolve to "Yes" if H.B. 1598, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information from the Texas Legislature or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/texas-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-act-signed-in-2025
| poszukiwacz | Yes | 1.37K |
| Pobedabudet | Yes | 1.04K |
| zuk | Yes | 844.78 |
| sergvpp | Yes | 385.58 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 363 |
| AdamKowalewski | Yes | 349.08 |
| Baldinini | Yes | 342.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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