Question 1

What is the “Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

Right now Yes trades at 22.0¢ and No at 78.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 22.0% for Yes and 78.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Oct 10, 2026. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for… Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt.

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($22.2) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($123.74) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 2 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 100.0% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 15, 1:54 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/temperature-increase-2026-09-28-b1) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
AJSV	Yes	22.2	11.0%	$22.2
russell110320	No	22.2	89.5%	$22.2	Sep 15, 12:19 PM

Trader	Current holding value
russell110320	$17.32
AJSV	$4.88

Will global temperature increase by less than 1.30ºC in September 2026?

September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Questions about this market