Will global temperature increase by more than 1.49ºC in September 2026?

weatherResolved

No, settled Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.5K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 1 Sep 2026 to 9 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 1 Sep 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 7 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 24.5% on 2 Sep 2026. $1.52K traded over the market's life.

8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 10, 2:55 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 1 Sep 2026 – 9 Oct 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Sep 2026	50.0%
9 Oct 2026	1.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
St3f	Yes	475
Indigo Signal 2966	No	358.34
sanduspace	Yes	200
jackli003	Yes	200

8 of 8 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.