Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.9%. Yes opened at 16% on 17 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 17 Mar 2026 to 24 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 16% on 17 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.3% on 23 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.1 points down, to 3.4% on 22 Mar 2026.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 25, 6:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 17 Mar 2026 – 24 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Mar 2026 | 16.0% |
| 24 Mar 2026 | 5.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 32.59K |
| MartySupreme123 | Yes | 714.27 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| Poory | Yes | 157.43 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Ted Cruz (@tedcruz), posts on X between March 17, 12:00 PM ET and March 24, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution source: https://x.com/tedcruz
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ted-cruz-of-tweets-march-17-march-24-2026
| Romeo005 | Yes | 99.99 |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes | 66.03 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 54.21 |
| justwant5 | Yes | 51.07 |
| megadarkparticle | Yes | 49 |
| human.bean | Yes | 27.74 |
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