Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 14 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 145 daily closes on record from 14 Jan 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 17 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 27 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 37% on 27 Jan 2026. $125K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 145 points, 14 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Jan 2026 | 15.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet-Offramp | Yes | 289.96 |
| ma99 | Yes | 74.63 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 60.95 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cho Jung-tai ceases to be Premier of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Cho Jung-tai's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Cho Jung-tai and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/taiwanese-premier-cho-jung-tai-out-by
| daroghi | Yes | 51.08 |
| spodkaposk | Yes | 38.61 |
| RepublicOfChina | Yes | 26.12 |
| youyoo | No | 20 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 15.17 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 13.4 |
| Kronosssss | Yes | 11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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