Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 13 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 13 Aug 2024 to 1 Sep 2024, the highest close was 9.5% on 14 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Aug 2024. $74.12K traded over the market's life.
53 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 13 Aug 2024 – 1 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2024 | 8.5% |
| 1 Sep 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dopedegen | Yes | 1.05K |
| Pidaras | Yes | 100 |
| Ill-Logo | Yes | 50 |
| Vargen.eth | Yes | 35.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Swan Bitcoin, official representatives of Swan Bitcoin (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces that Swan Bitcoin is insolvent or is filing/has filed for any variety of bankruptcy by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. This market will also resolve to "Yes" if Swan Bitcoin suspends Bitcoin withdrawals for a majority of users across its products for at least 7 consecutive days (168 hours) by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. This includes situations where a majority of users are unable to withdraw Bitcoin from Swan Bitcoin's products which are typically available for withdrawal. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Swan Bitcoin, its representatives (e.g., lawyers, spokespeople), and a consensus of credible reporting. If neither of the above criteria are met, this market will resolve to "No". If Swan Bitcoin suspends withdrawals on a day in the last week of August (e.g. They halt token withdrawals on August 29, 2024, 4 PM ET), this market will not resolve until either: 1) withdrawals are reenabled before 7 full days (168 hours) pass, resulting in a "No" resolution; 2) 7 full days pass (August 29, 2024 - September 5, 2024, 4 PM ET) where withdrawals are suspended, resulting in a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/swan-bitcoin-insolvent-by-august-31
| iiwii | Yes | 16.67 |
| Romanovsv | Yes | 11.11 |
| MadCatt | Yes | 0.13 |
| LazerEyeJoe | Yes | 0.13 |
| Madmaxxed | Yes | 0.13 |
| AppointedDog | Yes | 0.13 |
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