Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 174 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 7 Jul 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59% on 31 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 18% on 4 Jan 2026. $45.39K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 174 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 7 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 52.5% |
| 7 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| plmr | Yes | 5K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 346.82 |
| PolyJaguar | Yes | 100.07 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by
| 53asdad | Yes | 84.16 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 57.85 |
| gnom2049 | Yes | 44.69 |
| tweetmaster | Yes | 38 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 30.44 |
| TerranSupremacy | Yes | 26.66 |
| ROGE2304 | Yes | 20.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
