Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 186 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 21 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 16.5% on 22 Mar 2026. $69.53K traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 8:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 186 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 10.5% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Donwakis | Yes | 2.85K |
| Entire-Eggnog | Yes | 2.09K |
| Quiet Pulse 792E | Yes | 1.01K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued). Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count. If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above. A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/state-of-siege-declared-in-chile-by-june-30
| labistiiia | Yes | 1K |
| gopay | Yes | 508.1 |
| Barretsitico | Yes | 500 |
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 362.78 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 310.71 |
| Hard-Park-Challenge | Yes | 292.52 |
| Misty Voyager 20C9 | Yes | 291.48 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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