Analytics
Yes is at 32%, down 12 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
Across the 267 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 17 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 40%; a month before, 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 13% on 31 Jan 2026.
>$8,000 is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?”, ahead of $7,000-$7,500 at 24.5%.
$7.91 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.56K since listing. The order book holds $388.69, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 226 trades, $927.86 bought Yes and $1.31K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Dimpled-Foal with 1.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 80.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 6:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 267 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 43.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dimpled-Foal | Yes | 1.63K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.49K |
| AdvancedMoneyDoubler | No | 570 |
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-close-dec-2026
| KTKK | No | 481.77 |
| BornAgain26 | Yes | 339.99 |
| Brianm | Yes | 314.58 |
| AhHoi | Yes | 279.98 |
| rkreddyzoomin | No | 248.8 |
| Violet Oracle 91DB | Yes | 221.88 |
| retolo273 | Yes | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
