Analytics
Yes is at 12%, down 32 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
Across the 251 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 21 Oct 2026 (36 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46% on 24 Jan 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 9 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 7.5% on 10 Feb 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?”.
$87.86 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.03K since listing. The order book holds $632.13, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 163 trades, $173.78 bought Yes and $839.19 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Keen Summit 936F with 383 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 81.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 11:10 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 251 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 21 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 43.5% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 16.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.48K |
| Keen Summit 936F | Yes | 383.29 |
| retolo273 | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-close-dec-2026
| cc416 |
| Yes |
| 150 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 131.89 |
| 387411007415611814092217897387 | Yes | 131.04 |
| Coral Kestrel 29F5 | Yes | 110.77 |
| Kubrick | Yes | 100 |
| fromthefuture | Yes | 88.44 |
| Worrisome-Beneficiary | Yes | 83.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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