Analytics
Yes is at 15%, down 29 points from 43.5% when the market opened on 8 Jan 2026.
Across the 258 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (33 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 46.5% on 9 Jan 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 11 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23.5%; a month before, 9.5%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 7.5% on 10 Feb 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?”.
$5.26K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $446.15, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Greedy-Detector-Behold with 535 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 68 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 258 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 43.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.48K |
| Greedy-Detector-Behold | Yes | 535.09 |
| littlebird | No | 408.67 |
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-close-dec-2026
| Keen Summit 936F | Yes | 373.72 |
| ng6000 | Yes | 207.87 |
| retolo273 | Yes | 200 |
| Dimpled-Foal | No | 169.68 |
| Marvelous-Poignance | Yes | 149.97 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 131.89 |
| underthewater | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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