Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 11% on 19 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 19 Mar 2026 to 3 Apr 2026, the highest close was 12% on 21 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Apr 2026. $30.24K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 16, 2:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 19 Mar 2026 – 3 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Mar 2026 | 11.0% |
| 3 Apr 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gaseous-Metric | Yes | 5.48K |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| zabaniya6666 | Yes | 100 |
| shabbatccom | Yes | 83.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Saudi Arabia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Arabian Standard Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Saudi Arabia's military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Saudi Arabian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Saudi Arabian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-by
| 5atka | Yes | 70.45 |
| RememberAmalek | Yes | 63.61 |
| pekkapietari | Yes | 62.5 |
| Aromatic-Whirlpool | Yes | 60.53 |
| liyueboy | Yes | 44.41 |
| Gruesome-Form | Yes | 31.18 |
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