Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 9 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 174 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 17% on 18 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 17% on 18 Jan 2025. $123.59K traded over the market's life.
57 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 174 points, 9 Jan 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2025 | 6.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| rjaywill | Yes | 1.69K |
| SamCrosling | Yes | 1.03K |
| gandalf | Yes | 999.87 |
is market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is arrested between January 7 and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. However, official information from the government involved in any action against Altman and information from Altman's legal representatives will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sam-altman-arrested-before-july
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| mspro | Yes | 514.04 |
| butts | Yes | 310.29 |
| ujaKanga | Yes | 290.13 |
| maxcrimax | Yes | 250 |
| bokroxy69 | Yes | 169.71 |
| Ladysolsol | Yes | 142.86 |
| luckyphilx | Yes | 133.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
