Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 14 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 208 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 10% on 19 Nov 2025. $130.8K traded over the market's life.
137 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 9:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 208 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | 26.56K |
| Variable-Thump | Yes | 6.95K |
| Big-Waterbed | Yes | 3.26K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russian-strike-on-poland-by-september-30
| plmr | Yes | 2.5K |
| JUP757 | Yes | 1.1K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 855.61 |
| ACara | Yes | 834.01 |
| Dull-Simplicity | Yes | 575.61 |
| Volku | Yes | 542.08 |
| Arid-Beancurd | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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