Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 93.4%. Yes opened at 30% on 4 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 5 Feb 2026, the highest close was 93.4% on 5 Feb 2026 and the lowest 30% on 4 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 63 points up, to 93.4% on 5 Feb 2026. $133.58K traded over the market's life.
72 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 6, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 5 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 30.0% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 93.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Uneven-Agenda | No | 8.43K |
| Dalbayov | No | 3.17K |
| LukeDelta | No | 1.55K |
| Bbarnard | No | 1.1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The number of prisoners involved does not matter. Any swap involving military or civilian detainees held by either government will qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-prisoner-exchange-by
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Amber Comet 814A | No | 1.06K |
| wallet-2 | No | 600 |
| jewpresident | No | 599.86 |
| bobsquareab | No | 575.63 |
| LukeAlpha | No | 350 |
| kamarat | No | 350 |
