Analytics
Yes is at 26%, down 8.5 points from 34.5% when the market opened on 8 Sep 2026.
Across the 50 daily closes on record from 8 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.5% on 11 Sep 2026 and the lowest 23% on 1 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32%; a month before, 29%. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 23% on 1 Oct 2026.
It is one of 15 markets under “Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?”.
$92.17 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $41.36K since listing. The order book holds $41.26K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 408 trades, $5.61K bought Yes and $6.88K bought No; the largest was a $1.45K buy of Yes at 32.3¢.
The largest Yes position is iHaveBeenPwned with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is KrackenSruster with 2K. Ten wallets hold 68.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Mar 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:03 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 8 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 15%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Sep 2026 | 34.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 26.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster | No | 2K |
| LLL2211 | No | 1.88K |
| Needy-Retirement | No | 1.42K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by
3 more markets, none above 13.5%.
| iHaveBeenPwned |
| Yes |
| 1.31K |
| SuperTests | Yes | 1.19K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 1.05K |
| Shadowy-Prince-Enzyme | Yes | 1K |
| 881112 | Yes | 815.96 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yes | 737.09 |
| Emerald Scout EF69 | Yes | 393.84 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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