Analytics
Resolved No on 18 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 79.5% on 6 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 6 Dec 2025 to 18 Dec 2025, the highest close was 80.5% on 7 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 18 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 65.5% on 8 Dec 2025. $7.01K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 19, 12:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 6 Dec 2025 – 18 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Dec 2025 | 79.5% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MuchAdo2BRN2B | Yes | 70 |
| s.letushov | Yes | 41.77 |
| Grokius | Yes | 27.94 |
| plwizard | Yes | 23.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality's soil by the listed date Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-strike-on-kyiv-municipality-by-december-5
| Crimson Comet 54F6 | Yes | 20 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 12 |
| 26lkkdasdsa | Yes | 11.31 |
| shapito | Yes | 5.84 |
| Isjsksjs | Yes | 5 |
| genius520 | Yes | 2.56 |
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