Analytics
Yes is at 1.3%, down 1.7 points from 2.9% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
The high was 2.9% on 23 Sep 2026 and the low 1.1% on 14 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 1.8%.
$6.41K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $24.94K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 60 trades, $46.09 bought Yes and $2.19K bought No; the largest was a $1.27K sell of No at 96.7¢.
The largest Yes position is Ancapsu with 606 shares; the largest No position is GollumGekko with 836. Ten wallets hold 85% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 17 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 7:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 2.9% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 1.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GollumGekko | No | 835.98 |
| RememberAmalek | No | 623.12 |
| Ancapsu | Yes | 606.06 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio's hourly odds value is higher than JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the two values are equal does not count as Marco Rubio being higher and ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for either option (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Marco Rubio or JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing before November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for both Marco Rubio and JD Vance between market creation and November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if Marco Rubio is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Marco Rubio and JD Vance in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/gop-nomination-2028.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.
Official listing:
| MrNoItAll |
| No |
| 541 |
| Royal Harbor 217A | Yes | 308.63 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 251 |
| XAE12Archangel | No | 200 |
| dennich | Yes | 153.94 |
| Antony82 | Yes | 150 |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f. | Yes | 128.93 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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