Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 70.5%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 22 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 8 Sep 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 24 Aug 2026 and the lowest 24.5% on 23 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 48.5% on 24 Aug 2026. $523.89 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 8 Sep 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 47.5% |
| 8 Sep 2026 | 29.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sanduspace | Yes | 100 |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44. | Yes | 100 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/republicans-favored-to-win-the-senate-on-nate-silvers-bulletin-byptptpt
| a5533 | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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