Analytics
Yes is at 0.2%, down 8.8 points from 9% when the market opened on 18 Sep 2026.
Across the 35 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 9% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.6%; a month before, 3.3%.
It is one of 2 markets under “Ren Zhengfei confirmed outside China by...?”.
$3.27K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.9K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 42 trades, $31.2 bought Yes and $1.83K bought No.
The largest Yes position is sanduspace with 300 shares; the largest No position is 0xrc with 934. Ten wallets hold 85.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:12 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 9.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 0xrc | No | 933.62 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 300 |
| Perypery | Yes | 266 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ren Zhengfei was outside China at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside China and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside China occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Ren Zhengfei need not depart China during the market window, nor remain outside China at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside China at market creation, his confirmed presence outside China during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to China. China is defined as territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Hong Kong and Macau and excluding Taiwan. In cases where Ren Zhengfei may have exited Chinese airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than China for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ren Zhengfei exits Chinese maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ren-zhengfei-confirmed-outside-china-byptptpt
| lukelukewe |
| No |
| 186.94 |
| 843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734. | Yes | 150 |
| Anjun | Yes | 126 |
| yimocheng89 | Yes | 105 |
| aiersha3 | No | 103.87 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 81.76 |
| yujhggkuy | No | 80.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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