Analytics
Yes is at 94.5%, up 59 points from 35.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 94.5% on 23 Oct 2026 and the lowest 30% on 13 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 39.5% on 9 Oct 2026.
<3" is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Precipitation in NYC in October?”, ahead of 3-4.25" at 4.5%.
$399.36 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $22.44K since listing. The order book holds $530.74, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 463 trades, $4.35K bought Yes and $3.45K bought No.
The largest Yes position is FrogCharts with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Winged-Holder with 729. Ten wallets hold 78.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Jan 2027, 77 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 1:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 35.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 94.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrogCharts | Yes | 1.12K |
| molodoyy | Yes | 955.13 |
| Winged-Holder | No | 728.85 |
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between October 1 and October 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for October 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of October 2026. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-nyc-in-october-2026
| Indigo Signal 2966 |
| No |
| 713.59 |
| shiifoo | No | 508.45 |
| mewmew1 | Yes | 354.64 |
| Roomservice | Yes | 321.72 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 219.12 |
| 0xOTd | No | 210.16 |
| johnashbough | No | 203.46 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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