Analytics
Yes is at 97.4%, up 81 points from 16% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.4% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.2% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 34.3%. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 20.5% on 6 Oct 2026.
70-85mm is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Precipitation in London in October?”, ahead of 110mm+ at 2.9%.
$203.48 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $8.42K since listing. The order book holds $590.54, with a 3.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 223 trades, $1.7K bought Yes and $2.19K bought No.
The largest Yes position is FrogCharts with 2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 91.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Jan 2027, 70 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 16.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 97.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| FrogCharts | Yes | 1.97K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.48K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 321.88 |
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in October, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for October 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of October 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/precipitation-in-london-in-october-20260925t160000000z
| acunserd | Yes | 200.7 |
| donthackme | No | 153.07 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 149.5 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 78 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | No | 70 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | No | 70 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 51 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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