Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 49.5% on 25 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 284 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 70% on 6 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 35.5% on 26 Mar 2025. $988.22K traded over the market's life.
174 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 8:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 284 points, 25 Mar 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2025 | 49.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| slight- | Yes | 26.48K |
| xymaris | Yes | 6.05K |
| Jenny42069 | Yes | 5.28K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pierre Poilievre announces he is resigning as head of the Conservative Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Conservative Party of Canada for any length of time between March 23, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Pierre Poilievre or the Conservative Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pierre-poilievre-out-as-leader-of-conservatives-in-2025
| Generator | Yes | 3.17K |
| biden4prez | Yes | 3.17K |
| YoungGriff | Yes | 2.81K |
| 343N | Yes | 2.48K |
| amundsen-scott | Yes | 2.29K |
| Erasmus. | Yes | 2.05K |
| gandalf | Yes | 1.34K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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