Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 1.1 points from 4% when the market opened on 15 Aug 2026.
Across the 68 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 7.5% on 18 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.6%; a month before, 0.4%.
$3.1K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $4.11K, with a 2.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 44 trades, $5.43 bought Yes and $2.39K bought No; the largest was a $1.65K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is WJB with 1.8K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 1.7K.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 10:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 68 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 4.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/phoebe-gates-arrested-by-december-31
| thecaricature |
| Yes |
| 237.76 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 80 |
| AJSV | Yes | 33.34 |
| 0x49F206 | No | 29.98 |
| DREAMBIG. | No | 22 |
| smarterstrat-junior | Yes | 20.01 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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