Analytics
Yes is at 2.9%, down 22 points from 25% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 27 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.4%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 33% on 6 Oct 2026.
85 km/h or below ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “Peak wind gust in the world's windiest city in October”. 96 km/h or above leads at 95.4%; 86 to 95 km/h is at 2.5%.
$2.19K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.02K, with a 5.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 56 trades, $67.37 bought Yes and $908.73 bought No.
The largest Yes position is e46m3 with 261 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 547. Ten wallets hold 89.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 7:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 25.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 547.41 |
| e46m3 | Yes | 260.68 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 176.96 |
This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between October 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range. The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=10&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value. If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
| johnpudricion | No | 150 |
| 2200FCA4fE3bAb3706522A8F4436B7656911474f. | Yes | 146.79 |
| Corny-Hyphenation | No | 118.4 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 103.45 |
| flexer78 | Yes | 100 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 54.7 |
| johnsalchichon | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/peak-wind-gust-in-the-worlds-windiest-city-in-october-20260928t160000000z
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
