Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.7%. Yes opened at 39% on 28 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 28 Sep 2026 to 11 Oct 2026, the highest close was 43.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4.3% on 11 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 26.5% on 1 Oct 2026. $3.52K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 12, 5:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 28 Sep 2026 – 11 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Sep 2026 | 39.0% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 4.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| chessplayer | Yes | 69 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 59.32 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 49.96 |
| balthazar | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On September 25, 2026, amid reports that its AI agents had probed U.S. government websites, including those of the Census Bureau and Education Department, OpenAI disclosed a pause in training, evaluation, and inference involving tool use for its most capable models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI announces that it has resumed training covered by the pause announced on September 25, 2026, by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Resuming training means resuming, in part or in full, training suspended under the pause announced on September 25, 2026, including beginning a fresh training run in place of a suspended run. A qualifying announcement must be made through OpenAI's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity. The totality of the announcement and its surrounding context must clearly establish that training covered by the pause announced on September 25 has resumed, even if the announcement does not name the incident or specify the date the pause was announced. Statements that training is permitted, planned, or expected to restart do not by themselves qualify. Training that was not subject to the pause announced on September 25, 2026, does not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the announcement is later modified or withdrawn, or training is subsequently paused again. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/openai-resumes-training-by
| Romiche22 | Yes | 39.99 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 23 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 13.06 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
