Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 47%. Yes opened at 59.5% on 3 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2025 to 4 Dec 2025, the highest close was 59.5% on 3 Dec 2025 and the lowest 47% on 4 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 47% on 4 Dec 2025. $10.38K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 6, 12:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 3 Dec 2025 – 4 Dec 2025, chart shows 40%–65%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2025 | 59.5% |
| 4 Dec 2025 | 47.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 1.24K |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 250 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 246 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'December 31' in the "US x Venezuela military engagement by...?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by?tid=1764682726361) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'December 31' in the “US x Venezuela military engagement by...?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-in-2025-over-50-by-friday or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-in-2025-by-friday
| No |
| 235 |
| xfhdfgh6 | No | 215 |
| AdrianRoss | No | 193 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 163 |
| sniper8888 | No | 151.34 |
| 0xRocket666 | No | 150 |
| AmyMarshall3143 | No | 133 |
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