Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$513.5K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 17, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld leaders

Where it stands

Resolved No on 17 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 14.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 17 Jan 2026, the highest close was 14.5% on 10 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 17 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.2 points down, to 1.5% on 16 Jan 2026. $513.45K traded over the market's life.

148 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 18, 8:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 17 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Jan 2026	14.5%
17 Jan 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Basketking	Yes	12.48K
alchimistul	Yes	11.86K
Thomas58	Yes	11.14K

10 of 148 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market (https://polymarket.com/event/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during any two-hour period ending by January 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/khamenei-out-as-supreme-leader-of-iran-by-january-31-over-50 or through the “Resolution” tab, with the time set to look at a two-hour window. This will display a two-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.