Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.6%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2025 to 13 Oct 2025, the highest close was 52.5% on 1 Oct 2025 and the lowest 2.4% on 13 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 38.5% on 2 Oct 2025. $128.74K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 14, 4:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 1 Oct 2025 – 13 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2025 | 52.5% |
| 13 Oct 2025 | 2.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| mgmtv | Yes | 17.65K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 11.02K |
| 7153649820 | Yes | 1.6K |
| spalato | Yes | 1.03K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by October 31, 2025, 11:59 ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Fed decreased by 50+ bps - US federal government shutdown for 15+ days - TikTok sale announced - Hamas released all Israeli hostages - Obama federally charged Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/neh.oct1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/neh.oct2.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/neh.oct3.png
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-october
| miniminnie | Yes | 898.38 |
| c4-4c | Yes | 801 |
| timjones | Yes | 670.73 |
| FergusL | Yes | 547.11 |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 500 |
| batsu | Yes | 481.84 |
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