Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 24.5%. Yes opened at 63.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 3 Jan 2026, the highest close was 75.5% on 3 Jan 2026 and the lowest 63.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 73.5% on 2 Jan 2026. $288.74K traded over the market's life.
96 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 3 Jan 2026, chart shows 60%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2026 | 63.5% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 75.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Starryplough | Yes | 19.62K |
| ralpheco | Yes | 2.5K |
| Gold.Mansacks | Yes | 2K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 1.7K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Russia x Ukraine ceasefire - Silver (SI) hits ↑ $100 - US x Venezuela military engagement - FED rate cut Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/January.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-january
| xeomsss | Yes | 1.62K |
| miracle-test | Yes | 1.61K |
| JSoon | Yes | 1.45K |
| Humongous-Antennae | Yes | 1.35K |
| gelsanitizer | Yes | 1.32K |
| Sig011 | Yes | 959.18 |
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