Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 74.5%. Yes opened at 58.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 67 daily closes on record from 24 Dec 2025 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 72.5% on 28 Dec 2025 and the lowest 20.5% on 24 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 25.5% on 28 Feb 2026. $240.35K traded over the market's life.
98 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 1, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 24 Dec 2025 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Dec 2025 | 58.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 25.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Pointless-Duster | Yes | 1.7K |
| Solar Pioneer D50E | Yes | 1.32K |
| Dankwizart420 | Yes | 721.65 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Israel strikes Iran - Israel withdraws from Gaza - Syria strikes Israel - Israel and Lebanon normalize relations - Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled - Israel x Turkey military clash Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Israel+Edition.pdf
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-israel-edition
| Yes |
| 599.15 |
| Loving-Citron | Yes | 471.99 |
| PaveR | Yes | 451.78 |
| oak | Yes | 404.67 |
| kamarat | Yes | 347.57 |
| Delectable-Almond | Yes | 333.33 |
| Edic | Yes | 305.58 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
