Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 71%. Yes opened at 35% on 20 Sep 2025. Before it settled, the high was 41.5% on 3 Oct 2025 and the low 21.5% on 21 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 21.5% on 21 Sep 2025. $22.51K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 4:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 17 points · 20 Sep 2025 – 6 Oct 2025 · axis zoomed to 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2025 | 35.0% |
| 6 Oct 2025 | 29.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| anta | Yes | 5K |
| Fafa13 | Yes | 2.78K |
| lissartter | Yes | 360.65 |
| Newshound | Yes | 294.86 |
| dial-rockfish | Yes | 129.87 |
| ChefDaddyXXL | Yes | 76.92 |
| Polishe | Yes | 33.33 |
| Dracones | Yes | 29.41 |
| MadetoTrade | Yes | 20.99 |
| X4X4X | No | 13.2 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - French election called - Macron out as President of France - Lecornu out as French PM - Another France debt downgrade Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/France1.png https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/France2.png
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-france-edition
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