Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.6%. Yes opened at 33% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026, the highest close was 33% on 22 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 21.5% on 25 Apr 2026. $9.44K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 33.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 4.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| troim | Yes | 999.77 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 69.9 |
| daroghi | Yes | 59.6 |
| Concerned-Tongue | Yes | 51.72 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-testlaunch-by-april-30-2026-366
| CHOMEANTOPE | Yes | 50 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 47.71 |
| Colala | Yes | 30.01 |
| Cruel-Eligibility | Yes | 28.72 |
| King-Nothing | Yes | 25.39 |
| RatherBangScrewSUC | Yes | 20 |
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