Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 61%. Yes opened at 52% on 11 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 66% on 12 Mar 2026 and the low 52% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 66% on 12 Mar 2026.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 15, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 11 Mar 2026 – 14 Mar 2026, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | 52.0% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | 61.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| LukeGamma | No | 1.84K |
| Skywa | No | 1.03K |
| Dbwoy | No | 633.49 |
| LukeAlpha | No | 300 |
| 5atka | No | 199.99 |
| Eiko | No | 107.06 |
| bjprolo | No | 100 |
| Demac | No | 98.53 |
| Lazy-Costume | No | 95.13 |
| Lavincey | No | 57.17 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-test-by-march-31-472
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