Analytics
Resolved No change on 11 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No change at 100%. The No change side opened at 84% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 11 Dec 2025, the highest close was 100% on 11 Dec 2025 and the lowest 84% on 5 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 100% on 11 Dec 2025. $25.38K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 12, 12:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the No change price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 11 Dec 2025, chart shows 80%–100%
| Observed | No change price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 84.0% |
| 11 Dec 2025 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sotnigram | 25 Bps Cut | 560 |
| pispes | 25 Bps Cut | 500 |
| chessqueen | 25 Bps Cut | 350 |
| CryptoBaggins | 25 Bps Cut | 199.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “No change” if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "No change" is the favorite in the Fed decision in January? market (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january?tid=1764799281194) during the specified period. This market will resolve to “25 bps cut" if, between "No change" and "25 bps decrease," "25 bps decrease" is the favorite during that period. The favorite will be determined by examining the four-hour window between 2 PM and 6 PM on December 10, 2025. This market will resolve to whichever of "No change" or "25 bps decrease" is ahead in more individual minutes during this window. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "50-50". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. If a listed option resolves “Yes,” this market will resolve immediately in favor of the corresponding market. Accordingly, if a listed option resolves “No,” this market will resolve in favor of the other option. If both options simultaneously resolve in the same direction, such as in the case of a negrisk market in which another option resolves “Yes”, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the “Fed decision in January?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/no-change-or-25-bps-decrease-favored-for-fed-decision-in-january-on-december-10-2 or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
| KarterCharter | 25 Bps Cut | 160.95 |
| Newshound | 25 Bps Cut | 160 |
| 0xRocket666 | 25 Bps Cut | 150 |
| nickswing | 25 Bps Cut | 125 |
| fullvalue | 25 Bps Cut | 120 |
| Elcaroeht | 25 Bps Cut | 110.6 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/no-change-or-25-bps-cut-favored-for-fed-decision-in-january-on-december-10
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