Analytics
Yes is at 83%, up 4.5 points from 78.5% when the market opened on 7 Aug 2026.
Across the 81 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95% on 4 Oct 2026 and the lowest 54.5% on 9 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 66.5%; a month before, 92.5%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 54.5% on 9 Oct 2026.
No change is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Bank of Mexico Decision in November?”, ahead of 25 bps decrease at 15.6%.
$6.3K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $68.52K since listing. The order book holds $2.52K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $9.18K bought Yes and $1.79K bought No; the largest was a $1.18K buy of Yes at 89.0¢.
The largest Yes position is MultiQuant24hAgent with 7.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 21K. Ten wallets hold 82% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 5 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 3:35 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 7 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 78.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 83.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 20.96K |
| MultiQuant24hAgent | Yes | 7.16K |
| Swift Orbit ABF8 | Yes | 3.43K |
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/bank-of-mexico-decision-in-november
| firegold | Yes | 3.21K |
| nicdan | Yes | 1.52K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 1.51K |
| Keen Raven F0BE | Yes | 1.03K |
| sweetj | No | 948.93 |
| rocky42019 | No | 910.52 |
| liq2 | Yes | 830.49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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