Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 5.5 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 25 Jun 2026.
Across the 123 daily closes on record from 25 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 28% on 4 Aug 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 10%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 19.5% on 4 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?”.
$783.53 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $291.06K since listing. The order book holds $27.09K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.83K bought Yes and $15.71K bought No; the largest was a $4.7K sell of No at 80.1¢.
The largest Yes position is SnapElectionAvoider with 7.6K shares; the largest No position is conotocaurius with 4.2K. Ten wallets hold 56.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 123 points, 25 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | 13.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 7.56K |
| Bingobingobingo | Yes | 5.3K |
| rwcoffee | Yes | 4.82K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512
| conotocaurius |
| No |
| 4.22K |
| nelbal8486 | No | 3.18K |
| CommanderData | No | 2.5K |
| QuarterlyComeback | No | 2.35K |
| 4751346 | No | 2.33K |
| MrMarket | Yes | 1.75K |
| Bromley86 | No | 1.55K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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