
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 50% on 15 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 1 Sep 2026, the highest close was 50% on 15 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 3.5% on 27 Aug 2026. $3.69K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 30, 8:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 242.99 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 100 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 39 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-alibaba-qwen-plus-3pt8-released-byptptpt
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| charay12 | Yes | 19 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 7.3 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 5 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| 80sdfs | Yes | 3.72 |
| Chubby-Asparagus | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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