Analytics
Trading is closed with Yes last at 50%; no result has been reported.
Across the 440 daily closes on record from 3 May 2025 to 1 Aug 2026 (16 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 88.5% on 16 May 2025 and the lowest 30% on 1 Aug 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 52.5%; a month before, 52.5%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 77.5% on 6 May 2025.
$888.18K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is Generator with 2.3K shares; the largest No position is Jade Quasar D7A7 with 495. Ten wallets hold 55.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 6:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 440 points, 3 May 2025 – 1 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | 57.0% |
| 1 Aug 2026 | 50.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Generator | Yes | 2.25K |
| FrosenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1.04K |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi
| No |
| 495.01 |
| Tsempi | Yes | 327.6 |
| Lunar Vector 77B6 | No | 147.05 |
| JJP7413 | Yes | 140.85 |
| warptrading | No | 123.22 |
| thekswarm | Yes | 113.41 |
| Royal Maven FD40 | No | 106.38 |
| Keen Scout EB71 | No | 104.14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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