Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 21 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 83.5% on 12 Dec 2025 and the low 0.1% on 26 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 35% on 20 Dec 2025. $5.99K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 6:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 204 points, 21 Nov 2025 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2025 | 50.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 48xsds | Yes | 247.31 |
| Phony-Routine | Yes | 181.54 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
This market will resolve to if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that a new Half-Life game is in production by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify for a "Yes" resolution, the game must be explicitly acknowledged by Valve to be an installment of the Half-Life franchise or have the words "Half-Life" in the title. Updates to and expansion packs for already-released games will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". An announcement by Valve of a new qualifying game before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced game becomes available to the public. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/new-half-life-game-by
| fm14 | Yes | 100 |
| needmoney4food | No | 57.2 |
| drh. | Yes | 50 |
| tweetmaster | Yes | 22 |
| goonaddict86 | Yes | 18.34 |
| Dcrat4 | Yes | 14.83 |
| slipo | No | 14.29 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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