Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 30 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 115 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2025 to 20 Feb 2026, the highest close was 31.5% on 26 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 11 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 7.5% on 27 Nov 2025. $35.72K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 21, 4:25 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 115 points, 30 Oct 2025 – 20 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2025 | 8.5% |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Enisharps | Yes | 2.1K |
| Avaricious-Kale | Yes | 661.89 |
| Vinc22 | Yes | 210 |
"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2025, scheduled for release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on January 29, 2026, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered."
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-q4-2025-295
| Yes |
| 142.51 |
| Arctic-Plug | Yes | 125 |
| ProbablyPomPom | Yes | 111.98 |
| Electric-Detainment | Yes | 62.29 |
| S888 | Yes | 55 |
| Crimson Comet 4FB4 | No | 51.54 |
| WimHof | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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